Report: Quarterly Renewables Report Q2 2015
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From the latest quarterly report.....
• A total of 16.6 million LGCs are expected to be created for 2015 generation which is 428,000 less than our previous report. The reduction is largely due to lower hydro generation.
• Average wind capacity factor for the first six months of 2015 was 31.0 per cent which was slightly lower than the 31.1 per cent achieved in 2014.
• Ararat Wind Farm (240 MW) and the Coonooer Bridge Wind Farm (19 MW) were committed this quarter. Both projects were successful under the ACT wind auction.
• We have again downgraded estimates for hydro LGC creation for 2015 (400,000 reduction) due to lower generation levels and expected lower rainfall for coming months.
• We have increased voluntary surrender of LGCs to reflect the commitment of the ACT to voluntarily surrender LGCs as GreenPower for projects that it contracts with under its solar and wind auctions. This amounts to voluntary demand increasing by 360 GWh per annum by 2018.
• We are expecting the LGC surplus to be 18.7 million at the end of 2015 and then to fall to 13.1 million by the end of 2016 and 3.3 million at the end of 2017. The 2017 surplus is 300,000 lower than our previous report, due largely to reduced LGC creation from hydro.
• To maintain a minimum 5 million LGC surplus 3,700 MW of new projects need to be committed by the end of 2016.
• The LGC spot price started the quarter at $48.00 and traded at over $52.00 before closing on 30 June at $51.75. Following the deal on the RET at 33,000 GWh by 2020