Report: Quarterly Renewables Report Q3 2015
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Highlights from the September Q3 2015 Quarterly Report
- A total of 16.6 million LGCs is still expected to be created for 2015 generation which is the same as our June 2015 report.
- Average wind capacity factor for the first nine months of 2015 was 32.1 per cent which was higher than 31 per cent achieved in 2014.
- Hornsdale Wind Farm Stage 1 (100 MW) which was successful under the ACT wind auction was committed this quarter. In addition the DeGrussa Mine solar plant (10.6 MW) and Uterne Solar Farm Stage 2 (3.1 MW) were also committed.
- Our hydro estimates remain unchanged though we are monitoring generation levels given El Nino conditions which will see lower rainfall and further storage reductions.
- We have increased voluntary surrender of LGCs to reflect the commitment of the Hornsdale Wind Farm as the ACT Government has committed to voluntarily surrender LGCs as GreenPower for projects that it contracts with. We have increased voluntary demand by 333 GWh per annum by 2018.
- We are expecting the LGC surplus to be 18.7 million at the end of 2015 and then to fall to 13.1 million by the end of 2016 and 3.3 million at the end of 2017. This is substantially the same as our previous report.
- To maintain a minimum 5 million LGC surplus 3,700 MW of new projects need to be committed by the end of 2016.
- The LGC spot price started the quarter at $51.75 and progressively increased through the quarter closing at $64.65 on 30 September. The price has continued to increase after the end of September and closed at $68.50 on 15 October.