Report: Quarterly Solar Report Q3 2015

20 Oct 2015

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Certificate creation
• STC creation increased 13 per cent in the September quarter, with a 15 per cent increase in PV creation

Systems creating certificates
• SWH: systems creating STCs decreased 3 per cent during the September quarter to 15,000 systems
• PV: systems creating STCs increased 9 per cent during the September quarter to 38,000 systems.  The past three quarters are the only quarters to have fewer than 40,000 PV systems creating certificates since the start of the SRES

Meeting certificate demand
• STCs submitted for creation so far in 2015 averaged 313,000 per week which is 7.0 per cent lower than the STC target and 10 per cent lower than the same time last year.
• We again reduced our estimate of the level of PV installed in 2015 from 780 MW to 732 MW.
• We expect that 59,100 SWH systems will be installed in 2015 slightly lower than our previous estimate of 61,060.
• We estimate that we will have a deficit of 1.2 million STCs at the end of 2015 compared to a deficit of 0.2 million in our previous report.
• The Clearing House went into deficit on 13 October and we expect that it will remain in deficit until early December.

• STC spot prices were very stable during the quarter opening at $39.85 and closing the quarter at $39.95
• STCs traded at the notional maximum of $40.00 (the Clearing House price) from 10 July until 11 September
• Fourth quarter forward trades from $39.80 to $39.85
• 2016 compliance forwards traded with most volume in the first to third quarter around $39.50 and a fourth quarter trade at $39.05


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