Renewables

Leading analysis on Australia’s large-scale renewable energy market

Green Energy Markets provide three analytical subscription products to assist clients make better informed investment, trading and policy decisions related to the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target and the associated market in Large-Scale Generation Certificates or LGCs:

Renewables Report

The cornerstone of our LGC market analysis is the Renewables Report.   These reports detail demand and supply for LGCs based on existing policy settings and existing and fully committed renewable energy projects.   Subscription includes:

  • Quarterly Reports to provide comprehensive analysis of market activity and trends, assessments of the influences affecting prices, and projections of future market activity (supply and demand)
  • Monthly Snapshots to summarise market activity with the use of effectual graphs and charts, and provide news on policy and regulatory developments.
  • Annual Power Station Report, which identifies all renewable power stations in Australia and certificate creation by year and fuel type
    A Renewables Report subscription provides clients with an appreciation of the current state of the market but stops short of evaluating likely future changes in policy settings and the economics of future projects that might come to market in the future.

LGC Price Drivers Report

Our LGC Price Drivers Report builds upon the work in the Renewables Report but looks beyond the current state of the market to consider a potential range of future developments that could drive certificate prices.

LGC Price Path Report

The LGC Holdings Report informs subscribers about the amount of LGCs held by market participants such as power retailers and their likely future requirements to comply with the Renewable Energy Target.

 

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Renewables Report

Renewables Report

Quarterly Renewables Report

• Forecast supply: what will LGC supply look like to 2030?
• Forecast demand: what will LGC demand look like to 2030?
• Analysis of supply to meet demand
• Tracking LGC surplus (no new project commitments
• Renewable capacity required to meet future demand for LGCs
• Tracking LGC surplus (no new project commitments)
• LGC creation projections
• LGC pricing

Monthly LGC Snapshot

• LGC creation by fuel type/month
• Hydro generation and storage
• Project and policy developments
• Historic LGC pricing
• Renewable generation in the NEM
• Tracking wind energy generation in the NEM
• Other relevant market matters

Annual Power Station Report

• Lists all Renewable Power Stations in Australia and their LGC generation by year and fuel type

LGC Price Drivers Report

LGC Price Drivers Report

The LGC Price Drivers Report is a quarterly assessment examining the various factors that might cause prices of wholesale electricity and LGCs higher or lower over time and a qualitative assessment of their likelihood of occurring.

The quarterly reports analyse conceivable changes in the following key drivers of supply and demand in the LGC market in producing probable scenarios for the range of LGC prices.

  • Data on LGC forwards trading activity
  • Government policy and political developments that could affect the RET scheme including consideration of other emission reduction policies that might affect electricity prices and LGCs
  • The size and status of the current development pipeline of renewable energy projects and potential timeframe over which these project could come on line;
  • A review of indicators providing guidance of prices required to support financial viability of new projects such as data on offtake prices, published estimates of current and future technology costs, and LGC forward prices;
LGC Holdings Report

LGC Holdings Report

This report takes supply and demand of LGCs down to the level of individual companies to provide an understanding of who holds LGCs and who needs them. This quarterly report provides:

  • A detailed listing of each major power retailers’ current holdings of LGCs as well as other liable parties and major power project owners;
  • Changes in participants’ LGC holdings from quarter to quarter
  • An estimate of future LGCs power retailers are likely to receive from established power projects based on historical LGC transfer patterns and known contract and ownership arrangements; and
  • An estimate of retailers and other liable parties’ future LGC requirements based on current RET liable electricity market share.
     

Latest Reports

Review of the NEM in 2016
This Green Energy Markets Insight analyses the changes in electricity generation and consumption in the NEM for the year ending 31 December 2016 and compares it to the same period in 2015.